Year Ender 2023: Trump's legal hassles, Biden's struggles make US Presidential polls interesting

Washington DC [US], December 30 : As less than a year remains before the US presidential elections, former President Donald Trump is leading incumbent President Joe Biden in pivotal swing states critical for the 2024 race, according to recent surveys.
However, while Trump is trapped in legal hassles, indicted on multiple criminal charges that are expected to come to trial at critical moments in his 2024 run for the White House, incumbent Biden who is aiming for a second straight term in office is facing voters' ire over inflation.
Biden is struggling to connect with voters, inflation appears to be a key factor eroding Biden's support among women, who, as primary grocery shoppers, have witnessed the rising costs of necessities firsthand. Women, in general, express less satisfaction with the current economy and the escalating prices of daily essentials, reflecting a sentiment that the economic impact is hitting them harder.
Meanwhile, Trump who has been one of the most controversial and popular Presidents to lead the country is facing many legal problems. Trump was engaged in an insurrection against the US and there are chances that he may get disqualified from the presidential ballot in 2024.
Major factors ahead of the polls
Ever since coming to power, Biden has faced a number of challenges. Initially, the economy stumbled amid the Covid pandemic, which was followed by conflicts in Europe (between Russia and Ukraine) and the Middle East (between Israel and Hamas). His approval ratings continue to remain at a record low. Amid the ongoing conflict and economic perception, it has plummeted to a mere 37 per cent.
Notably, the US economy has recovered from the previous low, with inflation coming down to below 3 per cent (for the first time since 2020) and unemployment easing to 3.7 per cent. However, the public perception of the economy has still remained negative. A New York Times and Sienna College survey showed extremely pessimistic views among the registered voters. As per the survey, 81 per cent of registered voters said the condition of the US economy was either "Fair" or "Poor," compared with just 19 per cent who said it was "Good" or "Excellent". The survey has shown concerning results for the Biden campaign.
Biden's stand on supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia also has been a deeply polarising issue in the country. The US has already given billions of dollars to Ukraine helping Kyiv to sustain with its counteroffensive against Russia.
But, after losing the majority in the mid-term elections and especially after Mike Johnson took charge as House Speaker, it has become incessantly difficult for the Biden administration to sanction funds for Ukraine. A Gallup poll showed that support for Ukraine is decreasing among the US citizens; 41 per cent of Americans say the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine 33 per cent believe the US is doing the right amount.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has been another issue of contention for President Biden. Ever since the October 7 attacks, the US has strongly supported Israel's counter-offensive with defence support. But the rising death toll in Gaza has also taken a toll on Biden's support among Arab Americans. According to a New York Times and Sienna College survey, 57 per cent of the voters disapprove of Biden's handling of the conflict, while only 37 per cent approve of it.
In addition, 46 per cent also believe that his rival Donald Trump can actually do a 'better job' in the situation. Even among Democrat voters, only around half approve of Biden's handling. Biden's support among Arab Americans has plummeted to a mere 17 per cent, according to a survey by the Arab American Institute (AAI) think tank.
Another major issue, that Biden's rival and predecessor Trump is strongly advocating is border security, especially at the southern border towards Mexico. In a controversial remark, Trump said that the flow of migrants is "poisoning" the US blood. He has also vowed to reimplement his travel ban against specific Muslim countries.
Issues like gun violence and abortion have also made headlines and have been starkly polarising issues among Democrat and Republican voters. It still remains to be seen how much impact these issues have on the polls.
Donald Trump's campaign amid list of criminal cases
Trump is eyeing a strong comeback as the President. But, his route to the White House is marred by a barrage of legal cases as he has 91 felony charges and four indictments against him, all of which he denies.
Trump was first indicted in March this year, by the Manhattan district attorney on charges related to a hush-money payment to an adult film star. Trump is accused of falsifying business records in connection with a payoff to adult film star Stormy Daniels who claims having a sexual encounter with the former President. According to prosecutors, Trump paid USD 130,000 to Daniels to avoid a sex scandal ahead of the 2016 election. He later reimbursed Michale Cohen -- who actually made the payment -- and later fraudulently disguised the payment as 'corporate legal expenses' in violation of New York law. Trump has pleaded not guilty, POLITICO reported.
Trump was indicted in another case in June, by a federal grand jury in Miami for taking classified national defense documents of highly sensitive nature from the White House after he left office and resisting the government's attempts to retrieve the materials. Both Trump and his aide Walt Nauta have pleaded not guilty. On July 27, the special counsel charged Trump with three new counts, including one additional count of willful retention of national defense information. Nauta was also charged on two new counts. A third defendant, Carlos de Oliveira, was added to the case and charged with four counts, including being added to the obstruction conspiracy charged in the original indictment.
Trump's third indictment is a result of special counsel Jack Smith's investigation into alleged efforts by the former president and 18 of his allies to overturn the 2020 election. The case was most aggressive in Georgia, where Biden secured a narrow win. The indictment alleges Trump and a co-conspirator "attempted to exploit the violence and chaos at the Capitol by calling lawmakers to convince them ... to delay the certification" of the election, CNN reported.
In August, Trump was indicted in the Federal Election Interference Case. An Atlanta-based grand jury on August 14 indicted Trump and 18 others on state charges of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 elections. According to the allegations, Trump mounted a wide-ranging campaign to subvert Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election. The effort culminated on January 6, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol and disrupted the peaceful transfer of power.
In the latest development, Donald Trump has been barred from contesting polls in two states -- Colorado and Maine.
Last week, the Colorado Supreme Court removed former US President Donald Trump from the state's 2024 ballot, under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment - which bars those who have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the country from holding federal office.
Following this, Maine's top election official also removed Trump from the state's 2024 ballot, citing the 14th Amendment's "insurrectionist ban". A bipartisan group of former state lawmakers initiated the challenge against Trump, leading to an administrative hearing earlier this month on his eligibility for office.
However, the 4-3 ruling of the Colorado Supreme will be placed on hold until January 4, pending Trump's appeal to the US Supreme Court, which could settle the matter for the nation. If the top court rules in Trump's favour, no state can bar the former President from running.
Meanwhile, all these cases against Trump haven't hurt his prospects in the polls. Several reports have shown that Trump's support has actually increased with the cases. Its biggest example was seen when Trump's mugshot from Atlanta Jail was released after he was booked in Georgia and got sold for millions. According to POLITICO, Trump's campaign raised more than USD 7 million using the merchandise of his mugshot.
Taking a look at possible Dark Horses
While Trump continues to hold a dominant lead among the GOP candidates with over 60 per cent support, his nearest rivals stand at a huge gap -- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 19 per cent and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 16 per cent, according to NBC News-Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa poll conducted from December 2-7. While some polls have also shown Haley and DeSantis tied at second spot.
DeSantis who was initially considered a close competitor of Trump, plummeted in numbers, at one instance even losing his second spot. Nikki Haley, who hails from Indian-origin, has risen consistently over the past few months. Both leaders have strongly come out with their stance in the GOP debates as well.
Meanwhile, another Indian-American Republican leader Vivek Ramaswamy has turned out as the surprise package in the campaign. From hardly anyone knowing him a year back, he has risen to the fourth spot in the GOP rankings and also stood at the second spot in one instance.
The biotech entrepreneur who dubbed Trump as the "best President of the 21st century" and aims to take forward his 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) legacy, has put forward strong points like laying three-fouth of the federal workforce, stopping H1B visa and closing down the FBI. According to a CNN poll, the largest supporters of Ramaswamy come from unregistered Republican voters and the younger generation.
What do the surveys have to say about the Trump-Biden contest?
According to the latest numbers, former President Trump is leading Biden 'significantly' in a 2020 rematch. Although both leaders are overwhelming favourites among the respective parties, there still lies a year before the two leaders face off eyeing their respective second terms. According to a poll by Wall Street Journal, 47 per cent of registered voters in the US will back Trump, 43 per cent will back Biden, while around 10 per cent still remain undecided.
The Hill reported that Trump is leading Biden in hypothetical match-ups in major states including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to fresh polling. Notably, each of these states was carried by Biden in 2020, and these numbers pose a worry for the incumbent Democrat.
A CNN poll showed Trump leading Biden by 5 percentage points in Georgia and by 10 points in Michigan, Another poll by Morning Consult found Biden trailing Trump in several crucial swing states: by 11 points in North Carolina, by 7 points in Georgia, by 6 points in Wisconsin, by 5 points in Nevada, by 4 points in Michigan and by 3 points in Arizona.
As less than a year remains to the presidential polls next year, both Trump and Biden -- who are almost confirmed to face off next year -- are carrying out intense campaigning. While Trump is riding on his massive support on major polarising issues amid multiple cases against him, Biden is trying to earn back his supporters amid economic outlook and raging conflicts. Keeping in mind the January 6 incident, as the polling day will near, it remains to be seen who gets the better of the other and enters the White House for the second time.