Business News

Risk to current account dynamics likely to moderate amid recovery in one-off import shocks: Report

Dec 17, 2025

Driven by commodity price volatility amid the persistence of the US-India trade deal stalemate, the risk to current account (C/A) dynamics is likely to moderate, as one-off import shocks ease. According to a Union Bank of India report, with the India-US bilateral trade agreement nearing finalization, potentially by late December of this year, exports could gain by cutting tariffs from 50 per cent to 15-16 per cent. However, the near-term impact may be limited. The deal is expected to strengthen India's export base over time, partially offsetting pressures on the trade balance in the quarters ahead.